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Posts by "ashraf laidi"
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Posts by Anonymous "ashraf laidi":
I strongly agree with your point about spiking oil prices hitting the US consumer and it is for THIS VERY reason that TRUMP will NOT make any armed strike against Iran (he will escalate the rhetoric and threats) but he knows too well that any actual military action will produce $80 or $90 oil, which will jeopardize the ONLY REMAINDER cylinder of the US economy i.e. the ONLY hope for his re-election.
This helps explains why Trump was entertaining a meeting with Rouhani. It also explains why Trump had a a not-so publicized falling out with OPEC and Saudi about oil prices several months ago.
As for the 9/11 of the energy world, I have a big problem with this analogy:
i) 9/11 was a total surprise, whereas blowing up Saudi oil facilities is NOT AT ALL a surprise given the several attacks over the past 2 years and the ongoing war in the region.
ii) 9/11 spectacularly was a disaster for the economy and human lives, whereas (Saudi oil facility can be addressed, replaced, substituted, relieved). Yes, it will be costly but probably more of a boom for the oil world than anything.
As for you claiming Fed did not respond right away to Sep 11, that is simply wrong: On Sep 11, Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ, SNB and BOC each cut rates that day in addition to providing liquidity injections. Yes, the oil attacks disrupted nearly half of Saudi's oil, but do not confuse disruptions with erosion or, obliteration. It's not like half of Saudi oil is totally gone. They can dig it back up.
Ashraf
Thks for your contribution. Im afraid Ill have to disagree, Not only the oil spike could turn out to be temporary, but sub-target inflation has been a problem for the Fed for the last 12 months (core pce under 2% since Sep last year).
You could also look at the situation from the angle of "what would happen to the USD and yields if they do not cut?" The answer would be a very ugly trifecta of rallying USD and plunging equities. There is no way around it.
Arguments for keeping rates unchanged are decent labour markets and OK US consumer, but of all this can easily be endangered by a simple deterioration in the trade war (not easy from this point) and another quants crash like we saw 2 weeks ago.
Your argument may be correct in the sense that we get a bigger dissent than expected. i.e. as many as 3 or 4 FOMC members vote against a rate cut. That would also be highly negative for stocks.
Ashraf
Your comments make sense. But what would you say to those who say the US economy remains the strongest,etcc?
Would you care to give any forecasts on gold? price/time?
Ashraf
I will keep your comments and answer them briefly.
- You stating that we had only 1 year of success out of 8. That is a blatant lie and your citing of stats is wrong, therefore another lie. Take the period from Nov 2017 to March 2018, or the entire year of Brexit of 2015, shorting GBP since Oct 2014 or shorting equities in summer of 2015. You also omitted the first 9 months of 2016, then getting the USD call from late Jan 2017 into year end.
- There are many other phases of winning trades based on anticipatory and real-time insights.
- I understand your excitement about the freedom to complain about losing trades on the website of the producer of the trades, but doing in a manner where you deform the truth with insults and lies about what I did at CMC and what i currently do now shows dishonesty of your part.
Ashraf
If you missed last night's webinar with Swissquite, here is the link.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m-bJ4vfubUo&feature=youtu.be
Thks
Ashraf
Thanks for your contributions to my website.
You are correct, many of those trades were stopped out. Trades of the last 2 weeks But where were you when in Jan-March, we netted more than 2500 pips in gains? And where were you in all of 2017 when I called the decline in USD since Jan while many were calling for 110. The DOW30, DAX30, FTSE100, USDJPY, EURUSD and gold trades. What about the 2 winning trades in USDCAD and 3 winning trades GBPAUD. I could go on more.
You can carry one using false accusations, attacks on my website. It is a free world. Go right ahead. Maybe you ask why we continue to have subscribers every month for the past 7 years and those who leave end up coming back.
Best of luck
Ashraf
Thanks for the comment and apologies for the late reply.
There are no plans for visiting Qatar, but this may change in Q2 2018.
Best
Ashraf
I own Ethereum.
AL
Ashraf